Cuerpo Académico de Estudios Económicos y Sociales

En Consolidación (CAEES)

XVII Coloquio Mexicano de Economía Matemática y Econometría

21-25 de Mayo de 2007

Ponencias

Papers

Artículos de Trabajo y Presentaciones Recientes

Hyperinflation and the Superneutrality of Money in Nicaragua (pdf)(with Gary Shelley)

The long-horizon regression methodology, developed by Fisher-Seater (1993), is applied to Nicaraguan data to test for long run neutrality and superneutrality of money.  Real GDP and real output in six broadly defined sectors are I(1), while the money supply is I(2).  These orders of integration imply that money is neutral with respect to both aggregate and sectoral output.  However, superneutrality is rejected for real GDP as well as for five private sectors of the Nicaraguan economy.  Results suggest that growth in the government sector, financed by rapid money growth, led to a hyperinflation that imposed real costs on the private sectors.  Excess money growth and hyperinflation ended following reductions in government sector output.

Presentación-¿Privatización de PEMEX? (PowerPoint)

Co-movement in International Dollar Price Levels (pdf)(with Gary Shelley)

This paper studies the relation between movements in the U.S. price level and the dollar price levels of nineteen other countries.  Using the band pass filter developed by Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003), we examine correlations between dollar prices when decomposed into their high, medium, and low frequency cycles.  The low frequency cycle in the U.S. price series is highly correlated with low frequency cycles in dollar price levels of the majority of countries in our sample.  The high correlation between low frequency cycles persists over a variety of historical sub-periods, including the eras of fixed and flexible nominal exchange rates.  This result, suggesting the existence of a common long-run price cycle, is consistent with long-run purchasing power parity.  In contrast, both high and medium frequency cycles are more highly correlated prior to the Great Depression.  This result is consistent with studies finding greater stability of real exchange rates during the era of the gold standard.  Also, it appears that the increased volatility of U.S. real exchange rates after the 1973 move to flexible exchange rates was largely due to declines in the co-movement of short-run dollar price cycles.

Cointegration Tests of Purchasing Power Parity (preliminary draft) (pdf)

In recent work Im, Lee, and Enders (2006) use stationary instrumental variables to test for cointegrating relationships. The advantage of their test is that the t-statistics are asymptotically standard normal and the familiar critical values of the normal distribution may be used to assess significance. Thus the test avoids various complications arising in regressions with integrated variables. Using the data set developed by Taylor (2002) to test for purchasing power parity, the ILE test is compared to three single equation alternatives: An error correction model, autoregressive distributed lag model, and the Engle-Granger two step procedure. The empirical evidence from the Taylor data raises a number of questions concerning the new test and the single equation alternatives.

Last of a Dying Breed by Dan Wetzel (Yahoo! Sports) Lament for a bygone, alas, era.

Quotation from the story by Wetzel: "This was back when the NHL had one of my favorite rules – three fights and you are ejected. Not one – totally acceptable. Not two – probably stretching it, but circumstance could merit that in two unrelated incidents a player might need to try to beat the hell out of someone during the course of a game. But three? Well, now, you miscreant, now you've crossed the line."

Unhappy Anniversary by Dan Wetzel (Yahoo! Sports) Another column about hockey. This one about the NHL commisioner, Gary Bettman.

Quotation: "There has never been a commissioner of a major North American sports league this inept, yet the league's board of governors keeps employing him, keeps giving him another chance to sink this once-proud, once-vibrant league to new depths."

Hockey Fight-Pelea de Hockey

una clásica Bob Probert vs. Tie Domi